平特五不中

You are all invited to the Annual Marrett Lecture on Political Violence and Terrorism, which is funded by the John and Eileen Marrett Memorial Fund:

鈥�Superstitions and Civilian Displacement: Evidence from the Colombian Conflict鈥�

Oliver Kaplan, University of Denver
Friday, April 8, 2022
12:00 鈥� 1:30 pm
Leacock 429

Co-sponsored by the Centre for International Peace and Security Studies

Abstract:
Violence during armed conflict has been explained using a variety of theories, including rationality, organizational dynamics, and personal and collective grievances. These explanations overlook the significance of what some might term 鈥渋rrational鈥� belief systems that are found in different countries among both combatants and the general population. Conflict-related religious and superstitious beliefs can shape civilians鈥� faith, resolve, optimism, social ties, and therefore levels of risk-acceptance and decisions to displace from their communities. This study explores new survey and interview data from Colombia and shows that a substantial share of the conflict-affected population holds a variety of conflict-related superstitious beliefs. It analyzes the determinants of these beliefs and assess their impacts on three key displacement-related outcomes: How likely are individuals to displace if their town is attacked; how able they are to cope with the difficulties of daily life in conflict zones (resilience); and whether they would recommend that displaced relatives return home. The paper uses regression analysis, statistical matching techniques, and interview and focus group accounts to assess the contributions of conflict-related superstitions and religious beliefs and practices to these outcomes. The paper concludes with a discussion of implications for the field of conflict studies, as the findings suggest existing theories of conflict and violence may be based on incomplete foundations and inaccurate models of decision-making.