An Estimate of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity From Interannual Variability
Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Departmental Seminar Series
presents
An Estimate of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity From Interannual Variability
a talk by
笔谤辞蹿别蝉蝉辞谤,听
Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A&M University, Texas
Equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) is the amount of equilibrium warming resulting from doubling carbon dioxide. It is one of the important metrics in climate science because it is a primary determinant of how much warming we will experience in the future. Despite decades of work, this quantity remains uncertain: the last Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report stated a range for ECS of 1.5鈥�4.5 掳C. In this talk, I will review the different ways we can estimate ECS from observations and describe a new approach using observations of interannual climate variations covering the period 2000 to 2017. That method suggests that ECS is likely 2.4鈥�4.6 K. Thus, our analysis provides no support for the bottom of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change鈥檚 range.